15 February 2019
Investing
Chart of the week – With renewed Fed support, could equities replay 2015-16?
2015-16 redux? US S&P 500 chart flags up possible parallels after sharp dip Growth outlook: for US more promising than […]
15 February 2019
14 February 2019
Investing
Retail investing: trouble in store?
The tough times for bricks & mortar retail landlords are unlikely to end soon, but those willing to spend on […]
13 February 2019
Investing
The outlook for fixed income risk assets
We do not share some of the fixed income market’s concern over near-term recession risks, but we do recognise that […]
08 February 2019
Thought leadership and the outlook
Entering the third phase of globalisation
First, agricultural activity – production and consumption clustered together Then, the industrial revolution – production soared Now, globalisation – offshoring […]
07 February 2019
Markets and central banks
Equity markets: the raiders of the Fed
Equity markets spent January in the shadow of the main central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. Under the reign […]
04 February 2019
Investing
German energy policy is making headlines, but the real news happened in 2007
Germany’s energy policy is in the news again as the long-awaited recommendations of the Coal Commission have just been published [1]. […]
01 February 2019
Markets and central banks
Developments & prospects for US inflation
Here is our review of developments in US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and consumer price (CPI) inflation over the fourth […]
01 February 2019
Markets and central banks
The European inflation rollercoaster
For Europe, the key story for investors to focus on this year is the outlook for inflation. We think this […]
30 January 2019
Investing
India outlook 2019: A year of elections and selection
Investors in India should tighten their seat belts so that they can withstand the likely market volatility in the first […]
25 January 2019
Investing
China megatrends: Economic policy – opening up or turning inward? (part 2)
China’s economy has shifted from export-led to domestic-led growth, with net exports – a component of GDP – not having […]
23 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Chart of the week – North Asian exports are weak
Looking at recent Asian trade, North Asian exports appear to be weak, confirming my view that globally, we have not […]
22 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Adapting to a new regime – allocating assets amid shifting sands
The role of bonds as a means of hedging equity exposure is being brought into question 2018 left investors with […]
18 January 2019
Investing
Want to bet the renminbi appreciates in 2019?
The renminbi fell by 5.71% year-on-year (YoY) against the US dollar in 2018 on concerns over slowing domestic growth clouded […]
18 January 2019
Investing
Asset allocation dashboard – January 2019
We remain structurally neutral equities, and we are underweight core bonds in view of gradually rising inflation and monetary policy […]
17 January 2019
Markets and central banks
US: A blowout jobs report, but reasons for concern in the activity surveys
The US labour market is solid, but recent PMI and other surveys show optimism waning and housing data weak. That […]
16 January 2019
Markets and central banks
China megatrends: Economic management policy – centralised control vs. market forces (part 1)
In previous monetary easing cycles (2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2014-2015), Beijing used much the same bailout toolkit each time, including: Subsidies for […]
15 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Brexit: the route to the UK parliamentary vote on the withdrawal treaty
In the UK, Brexit developments remain front and centre on investors’ radar, and during the final quarter of 2018, Brexit […]
14 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Grim European industrial production data flags risks over Q4 GDP
Last week’s national data on industrial production (IP) in November were decidedly disappointing, surprising to the downside. A number of […]
