17 January 2019
Markets and central banks
US: A blowout jobs report, but reasons for concern in the activity surveys
The US labour market is solid, but recent PMI and other surveys show optimism waning and housing data weak. That […]
17 January 2019
11 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Sino-US trade negotiations: Tariff freeze could last past March as tensions cool
The signs are that restarted Sino-US trade talks may follow a more constructive path than they did last year. Both […]
20 December 2018
Markets and central banks
Breaking up (with forward guidance) is hard to do
On the surface, the outcome of the 18-19 December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Fed Chairman Powell’s press […]
04 December 2018
Markets and central banks
Sino-US trade war: truce for now but risks have mutated
At the G20 summit on 1 December, China and the US agreed on a temporary trade-war truce. The US agreed to […]
03 December 2018
Investing
Outlook 2019: Macroeconomics– waiting for inflation
Wage inflation has started to pick up. Is the revenge of the Phillips curve a theme for 2019? Investors have […]
09 November 2018
Markets and central banks
Unintended consequences of the Sino-US trade conflict (part 2)
US President Donald Trump believes that “trade wars are easy to win”. Many observers and investors agree with him as […]
07 November 2018
Thought leadership and the outlook
A post-election recipe: Gridlock with a dash of stimulus
As widely expected, Democrats captured control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections on 06/11/18, emerging with a […]
28 October 2018
Markets and central banks
CAUTION: Criticising the Fed will have consequences
It’s not the job of market participants to tell elected officials what to say or not to say, but it […]
12 October 2018
Markets and central banks
October equity rout – higher interest rates not the sole culprit
Key takeaways: US interest rates have moved notably higher on the back of strong data and Federal Reserve communications that […]
09 October 2018
Markets and central banks
Assessing “Make America Great Again” ahead of the mid-term elections
As the US enters the mid-term election season, pundits have returned to the question of who deserves credit for the […]
05 September 2018
Markets and central banks
The Federal Reserve’s dollar dilemma
It would be an understatement to say that the Trump administration has presented challenges for the Federal Reserve. With the […]
05 July 2018
Markets and central banks
The dove in the dots: paving the way for a US inflation overshoot
At the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, policymakers raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 […]
26 March 2018
Markets and central banks
Trump’s China tariffs: consequences of the ‘America First’ trade agenda
President Trump signed an executive memorandum on Thursday, 22 March, instructing the US Trade Representative (USTR) to consider imposing tariff […]
26 March 2018
Markets and central banks
FOMC March 2018 – Chairman Jay Powell opens his account
A new era for US central banking began on 20-21 March as Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell presided over his […]
09 March 2018
Markets and central banks
Will the Fed change its policy framework?
Monetary policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have a problem and they have not been shy about highlighting it: […]
26 February 2018
Markets and central banks
Five topics for US Fed Chair Powell
On 1 March, Jerome Powell of the US Federal Reserve will appear before the Senate Banking Committee and as the new […]
23 February 2018
Markets and central banks
January FOMC meeting minutes: change is coming, slowly
The minutes of the January Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting reveal policymakers at the Federal Reserve becoming increasingly confident […]
10 February 2017
Markets and central banks
The tensions within ‘Trumponomics’
Donald Trump swept into office riding a pledge to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States through a combination […]
