14 August 2019
Emerging markets
The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate
Here is the conundrum: Why is the renminbi-US dollar exchange rate still under pressure when China’s external surplus [1] has […]
14 August 2019
13 August 2019
Insights on market events
Chart of the week – Choosing the other
It is a simple enough phenomenon in physics: when you push at one end of a closed tube with a […]
09 August 2019
Fixed income
Negative-yielding debt volume surges, entire German curve below zero
The first full week in August has seen a major rally in global fixed income markets pushing yields in developed […]
08 August 2019
Investing
Learning from Lear – REITs, rates and redemption?
A recent visit to Shakespeare’s King Lear provided me with a timely opportunity to review the unpredictable nature of markets […]
06 August 2019
Central bank watch
Dovish central banks: investors want more
Equity investors focused on central bank language in July. On 10 July, during Jerome Powell’s semi-annual hearing before Congress, the […]
05 August 2019
Emerging markets
Renminbi weakens through 7/USD after Sino-US strategy recalculation. What next?
The renminbi has fallen past 7.0 per US dollar after the market digested the implications of the move by US […]
03 August 2019
Equities
Asset allocation review – July 2019
After a negative May, equities posted a second month of positive performance in July. Developed markets (+2.0%) outperformed their emerging […]
02 August 2019
Thought leadership and the outlook
Wells, Wires, and Wheels – EROCI and the Tough Road Ahead for Oil
New research, led by Mark Lewis, our Global Head of our Sustainability Research, shows that oil needs a long-term breakeven […]
26 July 2019
Central bank watch
Meeting of ECB Governing Council in July – as close to action as they could get
After the 22 July meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council, the Policy Statement was about as dovish as could reasonably be […]
17 July 2019
Insights on market events
Chart of the week: Volume of negative-yielding debt rises sharply
Exhibit 1: Volume of negative yielding debt in multi-sector global bond index rises sharply as G3 central banks prepare to […]
16 July 2019
Emerging markets
China’s growth stabilises in the second quarter, risks balanced
It’s tightrope walk time for China’s monetary authorities: do they ease further to irrigate the green shoots of recovery, or […]
16 July 2019
Insights on market events
Views on US economic growth and the outlook
The US economy is transitioning from a (temporary) phase in which growth was supercharged by fiscal stimulus, lower corporate tax […]
15 July 2019
Emerging markets
Another small step in China’s move to financial liberalisation
China has taken further steps in financial liberalisation. Launched on 17 June: Shanghai-London Stock Connect Launched on 25 June: China-Japan […]
12 July 2019
Markets and central banks
Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank’s next president
Following intense negotiations, EU leaders agreed in early July on the succession plan for the presidency of the EU Commission […]
12 July 2019
Emerging markets
Will the PBoC follow the Fed and cut rates?
With the US Federal Reserve signalling that it might cut interest rates this year, the question arises whether China’s central […]
09 July 2019
Equities
Chart of the week – Looking for reconciliation?
Is it a conundrum or a case of scratching harder to unearth what is actually going on? Apparently incompatible: bond […]
08 July 2019
Central bank watch
A sea change in investors’ outlook for the world economy
Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney gave a concise analysis last week of how anticipations have evolved recently in […]
05 July 2019
Markets and central banks
Central banks commit themselves in June – But to what exactly?
June was characterised by a strong rebound in global equity valuations and a significant rise in bond markets as central […]
