14 January 2020
Investing
Fixed income outlook: the hunt for inflation
The most significant monetary policy developments in 2020 are unlikely to be policy rate changes; instead, many central bankers will […]
14 January 2020
14 January 2020
Investing
US jobs wonder – not quite what it seems
On the surface, the US job market is having a bumper run, with continuous growth signalling that more and more […]
14 January 2020
Investing
Emerging market fixed income – the outlook
Despite a sometimes challenging environment emerging market debt generated strong returns in 2019. All four principal emerging market debt categories […]
06 January 2020
Markets and central banks
2019: A happy ending
In 2019, global equities rose by 24.1% (MSCI AC World index in US dollar terms), marking the fourth largest annual […]
20 December 2019
Markets and central banks
Demystifying China’s local government debt
China’s local government debt (LGD) is like a mystery wrapped inside an enigma – few have an accurate understanding or […]
05 December 2019
Investing
Trade negotiations remain at the forefront for markets
Equity movements again mainly reflected hot and cold US and Chinese statements on the trade talks in November. The slightly […]
28 November 2019
Central bank watch
Christine Lagarde – a fresh beginning
In her first major policy speech, new ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke of the risks that weak domestic demand and […]
09 November 2019
Investing
Listed real estate: knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing
Our title, based on a quip from Lady Windermere’s Fan by Irish playwright Oscar Wilde that concerns cynics, could equally […]
05 November 2019
Investing
Chart of the week: US business investment is falling – really?
Recent data showing the second consecutive drop in investment by US business blotted an otherwise better-than-expected third-quarter GDP report – […]
04 November 2019
Markets and central banks
Market trends in October – Equities rally, but lack lustre
Relief that the risks of a Sino-US trade war and a disorderly Brexit appeared to be receding mainly explains the […]
03 November 2019
Markets and central banks
US Federal Reserve – Now on hold after third rate cut in 2019
The US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate cut marks the third consecutive loosening of policy aimed at providing ‘insurance’ against the […]
29 October 2019
Investing
More monetary easing likely as China GDP growth slows again in Q3
Facing strong growth headwinds, Beijing will likely maintain its policy easing bias for some time yet. We believe this scenario […]
17 October 2019
Investing
Chart of the week – will they/won’t they?
Are we or are we not on the cusp of resolution of two of the issues that have been dogging […]
16 October 2019
Emerging markets
Sino-US trade war risk – a reality check
The trade war between China and the US has moved into a second stage, in my view, with tail risk […]
10 October 2019
Investing
Alexa, what will happen to real estate if there is a recession?
Virtual assistants such as Alexa are the font of all knowledge (to some), but when it comes to the all […]
08 October 2019
Investing
Chart of the week – Is defensive sector outperformance signalling a bear market?
Renewed declines in purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) have been mirrored in falling US Treasury bond yields and this has been […]
07 October 2019
Investing
Germany’s ‘black zero’ – Up for debate?
In the past, the idea of fiscal expansion in Germany was considered a forlorn hope. Today, a growing sense that […]
05 October 2019
Investing
Chart of the week – Services to the rescue?
Are you being served?, the British 1970s-1980s department store sitcom asked, and increasingly, it is a question for markets and […]
