15 February 2019
Investing
Chart of the week – With renewed Fed support, could equities replay 2015-16?
2015-16 redux? US S&P 500 chart flags up possible parallels after sharp dip Growth outlook: for US more promising than […]
15 February 2019
07 February 2019
Markets and central banks
Equity markets: the raiders of the Fed
Equity markets spent January in the shadow of the main central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. Under the reign […]
01 February 2019
Markets and central banks
Developments & prospects for US inflation
Here is our review of developments in US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and consumer price (CPI) inflation over the fourth […]
01 February 2019
Markets and central banks
The European inflation rollercoaster
For Europe, the key story for investors to focus on this year is the outlook for inflation. We think this […]
23 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Chart of the week – North Asian exports are weak
Looking at recent Asian trade, North Asian exports appear to be weak, confirming my view that globally, we have not […]
22 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Adapting to a new regime – allocating assets amid shifting sands
The role of bonds as a means of hedging equity exposure is being brought into question 2018 left investors with […]
17 January 2019
Markets and central banks
US: A blowout jobs report, but reasons for concern in the activity surveys
The US labour market is solid, but recent PMI and other surveys show optimism waning and housing data weak. That […]
15 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Brexit: the route to the UK parliamentary vote on the withdrawal treaty
In the UK, Brexit developments remain front and centre on investors’ radar, and during the final quarter of 2018, Brexit […]
14 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Grim European industrial production data flags risks over Q4 GDP
Last week’s national data on industrial production (IP) in November were decidedly disappointing, surprising to the downside. A number of […]
11 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Sino-US trade negotiations: Tariff freeze could last past March as tensions cool
The signs are that restarted Sino-US trade talks may follow a more constructive path than they did last year. Both […]
08 January 2019
Markets and central banks
Equity market trends – a very difficult year-end
Despite rallying aggressively in the year’s last trading sessions, equity indices finished December down sharply (the MSCI AC World index […]
23 December 2018
Investing
China’s disinflation – a benign environment for bonds
China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rate continued to fall in November (2.7% year-on-year versus 3.3% in October), with an […]
11 December 2018
Markets and central banks
Structural changes explain stagnating wages in US labour markets
The alarming rise in financial inequality has been a topic of much discussion in recent years. Parallels have been drawn […]
07 December 2018
Markets and central banks
Disruption at the ballot box – Italy 2018
Among developed nations Italy, along with the US and the UK, stands out on account of the combination of very […]
04 December 2018
Markets and central banks
Sino-US trade war: truce for now but risks have mutated
At the G20 summit on 1 December, China and the US agreed on a temporary trade-war truce. The US agreed to […]
09 November 2018
Markets and central banks
Unintended consequences of the Sino-US trade conflict (part 2)
US President Donald Trump believes that “trade wars are easy to win”. Many observers and investors agree with him as […]
08 November 2018
Markets and central banks
Unintended consequences of the Sino-US trade conflict (part 1)
China could gain greater political cohesion While many observers see China as the underdog in its trade conflict with the […]
27 October 2018
Markets and central banks
Collateral damage from the Sino-US trade conflict
Although the focal point of the current trade tensions is between China and the US, collateral damage to other Asian […]
