07 July 2017
Markets and central banks
Equity market trends in June 2017
Modest gains in June Equities generated modest gains in June, with the MSCI AC World (in US dollar terms) up […]
07 July 2017
29 June 2017
Markets and central banks
Oil prices and the irresistible pull of supply
Crude oil prices fell close to 4% during the week that began 19/06/17 (see Exhibit 1 below) negatively impacting valuations […]
16 June 2017
Markets and central banks
Risk assets impervious to political noise… A.K.A. ignorance is bliss!
It has been an eventful period for markets with news from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the UK election. […]
09 June 2017
Markets and central banks
UK general election produces a hung parliament
On 18 April Theresa May unexpectedly called a snap general election with the intention of gaining an enhanced majority. At […]
07 June 2017
Markets and central banks
Developments in financial markets in May 2017
Equity markets extended their rally in May Not only did the old market saying (which, by the way, is a […]
02 June 2017
Markets and central banks
Risk, risk everywhere but not a drop of volatility
In a world of tumultuous, transformative politics, globally sloshing waves of central bank liquidity, rising policy rates and worrisome equity […]
30 May 2017
Markets and central banks
Trumpidation and the forces pulling at US interest rates
Looking through the latest headlines, three interconnected themes will likely continue to determine the path of US interest rates in […]
18 May 2017
Markets and central banks
Does the Trump administration’s “Failure to launch” matter?
“Failure to Launch” is a 2006 film starring Matthew McConaughey and Sarah Jessica Parker which is forgettable in almost every […]
10 May 2017
Markets and central banks
Markets neutral after Macron win, focus shifts to ECB outlook
The result of the French presidential election was as expected by the polls: Emmanuel Macron won the run-off against Marine […]
09 May 2017
Markets and central banks
US soft data optimism not yet reflected in hard data reality
One of the principal puzzles for investors since Donald Trump’s election has been the divergence between ‘soft’ economic data such […]
05 May 2017
Markets and central banks
When Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping, the reality emerges
The media and most analysts tend to emphasise the differences between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Xi has risen to […]
28 April 2017
Markets and central banks
First quarter 2017 US earnings season off to a good start
It probably received less attention than it normally does, but the US first-quarter earnings season is off to a good […]
26 April 2017
Markets and central banks
A roundup of recent global macroeconomic data
What with the first round of the French presidential election on 23/04/17 and the UK’s impending and (until just after […]
14 April 2017
Markets and central banks
India local election win could spur reforms
The strong performance of the BJP, the Bharatiya Janata Party of India’s prime minister Narendra Modi, in recent elections in […]
13 April 2017
Markets and central banks
US labour market: this is the annual hiccup
Economic surprise indices have on the whole remained highly positive in the US, although the latest US labour market report […]
07 April 2017
Markets and central banks
Why we shouldn’t assume that populism has peaked
With the benefit of hindsight, Brexit and the election of Trump are not surprising Developed economies are polarised: the gains […]
02 April 2017
Markets and central banks
The potential economic consequences of Mr Trump
Reverse globalisation in action Political events in 2016 (Brexit and the election of Donald Trump) triggered a morphing of macroeconomists […]
31 March 2017
Markets and central banks
Mixed signals on economic outlook from leading indicators in March
The first purchasing manager indices (PMIs) published in March contain mixed signals on the economic outlook. The US manufacturing and […]
