19 September 2019
Insights on market events
The longest ever expansion in US economic growth
The election campaign for the November 2020 US presidential election was launched by President Trump in June. ‘It’s the economy […]
19 September 2019
18 September 2019
Investing
Negative bond yields – what happens next?
The summer of 2019 has seen bond yields in developed economies fall to historically low levels. Interest rates on debt […]
13 September 2019
Central bank watch
What’s the ECB’s objective? Thoughts after September’s meeting of the governing council
Future generations of savers may search for bonds bearing positive interest rates like pioneers in the US gold rushes during […]
04 September 2019
Investing
Developments and prospects for US inflation
From the perspective of US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) investors, consumer price index (CPI) inflation continues to disappoint. Data released by the US Department […]
03 September 2019
Central bank watch
Shifts in trade policy drive equity markets in August
Financial markets continued to track news from the trade front. Equities fell in the very first trading sessions of August […]
28 August 2019
Emerging markets
China’s bank failures: a turning point for the system
Three recent bank failures show that China can take the short-term pain of financial clean-up and clear the way for […]
27 August 2019
Investing
Breakevens broken?
One interesting feature of the recent price action is that despite the high conviction among investors that central bankers will […]
23 August 2019
Investing
The ultimate question of the Hong Kong dollar peg
Recent socio-political turmoil has prompted investors to ask the ultimate question about the Hong Kong dollar peg: Does China still […]
21 August 2019
Markets and central banks
Chart of the week – Heaven in the havens?
Market volatility has been seesawing so far in August as various events have fuelled talk of global recession. While we […]
14 August 2019
Emerging markets
The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate
Here is the conundrum: Why is the renminbi-US dollar exchange rate still under pressure when China’s external surplus [1] has […]
13 August 2019
Insights on market events
Chart of the week – Choosing the other
It is a simple enough phenomenon in physics: when you push at one end of a closed tube with a […]
09 August 2019
Investing
Negative-yielding debt volume surges, entire German curve below zero
The first full week in August has seen a major rally in global fixed income markets pushing yields in developed […]
08 August 2019
Investing
Learning from Lear – REITs, rates and redemption?
A recent visit to Shakespeare’s King Lear provided me with a timely opportunity to review the unpredictable nature of markets […]
06 August 2019
Central bank watch
Dovish central banks: investors want more
Equity investors focused on central bank language in July. On 10 July, during Jerome Powell’s semi-annual hearing before Congress, the […]
05 August 2019
Emerging markets
Renminbi weakens through 7/USD after Sino-US strategy recalculation. What next?
The renminbi has fallen past 7.0 per US dollar after the market digested the implications of the move by US […]
03 August 2019
Equities
Asset allocation review – July 2019
After a negative May, equities posted a second month of positive performance in July. Developed markets (+2.0%) outperformed their emerging […]
02 August 2019
Thought leadership and the outlook
Wells, Wires, and Wheels – EROCI and the Tough Road Ahead for Oil
New research, led by Mark Lewis, our Global Head of our Sustainability Research, shows that oil needs a long-term breakeven […]
26 July 2019
Central bank watch
Meeting of ECB Governing Council in July – as close to action as they could get
After the 22 July meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council, the Policy Statement was about as dovish as could reasonably be […]
