BNP AM

The official blog of BNP Paribas Asset Management

Asset allocation update – Adjusting the short in Japanese government bonds

With global inflationary pressures building fast, we remain cautious  with regard to interest rate risk in sovereign debt generally but particularly in Japan, the US and Europe. We have taken profits on part of our underweight position in Japanese government bonds (JBGs). We had just recently increased the size of the position after bond yields rose more quickly than expected in the face of sharply higher domestic prices and rising wages.  

We see a shift by the Bank of Japan towards the 5-year point of the JGB yield curve (and away from the 10-year area) along with a widening of the implicit band by 25bp around its target yield as a likely next step by the central bank. At the same time, it is difficult to foresee a meaningful fall in JGB yields from the current 25bp.

Weighing up our long yen

A central bank policy shift would clearly benefit our long yen position[1], particularly with extreme valuations and prospective near-term triggers for the cross-rate to move in our favour. To date, however, widening interest rate differentials have weighed on the yen.

We will monitor price action closely with a view towards exiting our long yen position.

Inflation adds to pressure for rates action

Meanwhile, in Europe, the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to act in response to record inflation data is mounting. Our macro research team expects higher inflation – with risks to the upside – to result in rate rises taking the policy rate to 1.75% by Q2 2023. Discount rates could easily rise above this if inflation becomes entrenched, particularly in wages.

At the same time, consensus GDP growth forecasts have fallen dramatically over the course of the year (from 1.2% to 0.2% for the second quarter, for example). Consumer confidence has collapsed. Both developments are presaging further falls in stocks.

On the ECB’s own measure, the eurozone financial system is under significant strain, akin to that experienced during the pandemic and above 2016 levels.

To date, equities, and in particular expected earnings, have been strikingly resilient given the challenging environment. We remain short Europe ex-UK equities.

Asset class views  

References

[1] This is held as part of an unhedged long Topix position that has limited the recent impact of a weak yen 

Disclaimer

Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients. The views expressed in this podcast do not in any way constitute investment advice.

The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns.

Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions). Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.

Related articles

Weekly insights, straight to your inbox

A round-up of this week's key economic and market trends, and insights on what to expect going forward.

Please enter a valid email
Please check the boxes below to subscribe