A multi-asset toolkit that serves well in challenging markets

Post with image

In early October global equity markets experienced one of the sharpest sell-offs so far this year. The S&P 500 fell by close to 7% from peak to trough while other major indices in Europe, Japan and emerging markets experienced similar drops.

Many analysts and market participants have tried to explain these moves with competing fundamental macro-economic narratives. We agree that economic fundamentals matter, but they are usually best understood after market moves have unfolded. We therefore need to complement fundamental analysis with the study of the markets’ dynamic and technical analysis in order to extract signals that may help time our investment decisions.

Fundamentals: between a mature US recovery and quantitative tightening

Analysts are right to flag some similarities between the October correction and that which occurred in January-February. Both were sharp, equity-centric, largely unexpected and came after a sustained back up in US Treasury yields in an environment of low volatility (exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: As in February, US equities fell sharply in October in the wake of a sustained back up in US Treasury yields

Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Asset Management, as at 18/10/2018

Fundamentally, the main reason for these sudden moves is the fact that markets are facing the conflicting forces of a strong but mature US recovery and quantitative tightening as the Fed gradually removes stimulus after years of unconventional easing. This process has been further complicated by the fact that the US administration embarked on substantial fiscal expansion late last year. Fiscal stimulus has added to the demand pressures that the Fed needs to contain so as to keep inflation close to its target. In other words, markets are recognising the risk that the US economy may be on course to overheat.

Most markets observers understand these tensions as well as the other notable risks to markets such as Italian politics, the ongoing slowdown in China and US-China trade tensions.

But what most observers struggle with is in understanding how these fundamental stresses finally translate into such abrupt adjustments in valuations of risky assets.

Market dynamics and technical analyses are valuable tools for investors

The multi-asset team at MAQS (Multi Asset Quantitative Solutions) have a suite of ‘Market Dynamics’ indicators that seek to understand these imbalances to exploit market dislocations such as that experienced by equity markets in October. These indicators include metrics related to sentiment, volatility, liquidity and positioning, among others. Some of them were sending strong signals that a market correction could occur.

First, measures that seek to gauge investor sentiment on US equities (Investors’ Intelligence) reached a level of bullishness in September that we usually consider a good contrarian indicator (see exhibit 2 below).

Other metrics showed a drastic drop from bullish to bearish on 11 October (Daily Sentiment Index). Indeed, the move was so aggressive that it is flashing ‘excessive pessimism’ now. In addition, according to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), cash levels in portfolios rose steadily after having dipped to the lowest level since the 2000 peak.

Exhibit 2: Bullish sentiment was high in September suggesting a possible excess of optimism

Source: Factset, BNP Paribas Asset Management, as at 18/10/2018

Second, the US equity rally has been led by the IT sector and has decoupled from other cyclical indices like small caps and transportation over the past few months (exhibit 3). But there is also evidence of a thinner rally within the tech sector. Indeed, the returns of the IT-related giants such as Netflix, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft have been more dispersed recently, with only the latter two showing signs of resilience in the sell-off.

Exhibit 3: US equity market dispersion has increased in the past few months

Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Asset Management, as at 18/10/2018

Third, as in February, the correction took place at a time when a large number of companies in the S&P 500 were in a ‘blackout’ period which prevents them from buying back their stock ahead of earnings reporting. Indeed, according to Morgan Stanley, the latest correction coincides almost exactly with the peak number of companies in the buybacks ‘blackout window’.

Fourth, despite the fact that implied volatility (notably for US equities) rose in the January-February correction, it fell back to historical lows in September under the pressure of selling strategies (consistent with extreme short VIX non-commercial futures positions reported by CFTC). Implied volatility for other assets like currencies and rates also remain close to historical lows, despite the threat of liquidity withdrawals by the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks (exhibit 4). As we flagged in a recent piece ‘Blackout: be on the alert for a rebound in volatility, July 2018’ the phasing out of asset purchases (by the central banks) and share buybacks (by companies) are likely to cause equity volatility to rise and remain at higher average levels in the future.

Exhibit 4: Implied volatility remains very low despite the threat of quantitative tightening

Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Asset Management, as at 18/10/2018

Finally, we use these indicators along with our in-house Dynamic Technical Analysis. The latter uses state-of-the-art technical analysis tools to assess the prospects of material market moves.

Asset allocation implications

Taking all of these indicators together with our fundamental analysis, the multi-asset team at MAQS flagged the complacency and vulnerability of the US and other equity markets in September. As a result, we reduced risk to very low levels in our multi-asset portfolios and have adopted a more tactical approach in response to these signals. For example, we entered a short US IT vs. the overall US equity index in early September which has performed well so far.

These indicators also helped us to form a judgement about when to buy the dip. In particular, following the initial spikes in fear indicators on Wednesday 11 October, we saw the first signs of exhaustion and short-term capitulation with a huge spike in traded volumes.

In the last few days, these signals, together with our view that the US economy remains robust and supportive of strong earnings growth, led us to gradually add risk again by going long developed market equities.

Financial markets are currently subject to the tectonic shifts represented by the combination of quantitative tightening and a mature US bull market. In this environment the notion of “Risk ON – Risk OFF” is no longer applicable for calling market trends. We therefore need to assess market conditions by combining analysis of fundamentals, market dynamics and technical frameworks. These are the factors that enable us to be ready to take advantage of market opportunities.

To read more content written by Guillermo Felices, click here.

More articles by Fabien Benchetrit.


See also Blackout: be on the alert for a rebound in volatility“, Fabien Benchetrit, BNP Paribas Asset Management, 18 July 2018.Investors Corner app

Guillermo Felices

Senior Market Strategist, Multi Asset Solutions

Leave a reply

Your email adress will not be published. Required fields are marked*